War Pass - Can he carry his speed to glory?
Horseracing Betting Lines
03/04/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There's a big difference between being undefeated in March and winning the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May, but War Pass has an outstanding chance to join the likes of Seattle Slew, Smarty Jones and Barbaro as the lone unbeaten Derby winners since 1970.
The two-year-old Eclipse Award winner opened his three-year-old campaign back on February 24 with a smashing victory in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park. The Nick Zito-trained colt finished the flat mile in 1:36 1/5 hitting the wire 7 -lengths in front of his four overmatched rivals. Much has been made about the clockings that day, as the final and fractional times of almost all the races, even the Fountain of Youth, have been revamped more times than imaginable. Given that, some have argued that War Pass ran a full second faster, which if true, would make the allowance win even more impressive.
Perhaps the most imposing aspect of the victory was his ability to rate in the early going. This was the first race in his career that he was able to lead the field after a first quarter in over 23 seconds and a half over 46. His lack of competition had a lot to do with the fact not one horse challenged him early, but it's hard to argue with the ease of his gait and the calmness of the ride by Cornelio Velasquez.
War Pass has yet to race past 1 1/16, but his first nine-panel affair will come on March 15 in the Tampa Bay Derby. The rest of those expected to challenge him would not put fear into those betting on the two-year-old champion, so in essence, it will be another "workout" against inferior competition.
It's doubtful another horse will outrun him to the front in Tampa, unless Zito wants Velasquez to rate him in order to preserve some of his speed for longer distances, which the trainer has given zero indication will be the case. Even though it's early in the month of March, there are boatloads of questions regarding his stamina, which is the only thing holding him back from going off even money in the Kentucky Derby. Still, he is the lone three-year-old to have shown any glimpse of greatness, and it's that presence that has him sitting pretty, perched high atop the rest of his competition.
NOT MUCH BEHIND HIM
Suffice it to say, we won't know how War Pass will handle the 1 1/8 distance until his final two prep races, but for now he looks to be far and away the top contender in a year full of unpolished three-year-olds. Court Vision, this columnist's top choice, failed in his 2008 debut in the Fountain of Youth finishing third, while post-time favorite Monba was absolutely pitiful, coming home 12th and last. The winner, Cool Coal Man, a stablemate of War Pass, benefited from a perfect trip and will likely be an overbet favorite in the Florida Derby at the end of March.
For those still left on Court Vision's bandwagon, don't throw in the towel just yet. His first race this year was merely a tune-up for bigger and better things. In the Fountain of Youth, he nestled himself in last place, 12 lengths off the pace at the half, and was even further back at the three-quarter pole, before rallying for third, beaten 6 -lengths. All in all, not a terrible way to begin the year, but a more hardened workout regimen must be adhered to in order to revamp some of his lackadaisical habits.
One possible longshot to keep an eye on in the future is Halo Najib. The second-place finisher to Court Vision in last year's Iroquois made an impressive middle move only to flatten out in the final furlong to finish sixth in the FOY, and could be overlooked in his next start.
It is very interesting to compare most of the experts' top 10s prior to President's Day weekend to their current rankings. Horses that were barely getting mentioned almost one month ago are now in most handicappers' top five. Cool Coal Man and Denis of Cork are two who immediately come to mind. It seems that all a horse has to do to move up the list is to record a victory in a prep race. If one doesn't think this is true, just take a look at where Colonel John, Cool Coal Man and Denis of Cork are, and you'll see what I'm talking about. Don't be shocked if at least two of these horses fail to win their next start.
Another reason these horses are constantly moving up? A genuine lack of quality underneath. It's been a rarity this year for a horse to distinguish himself with a decent second- or third-place finish, the exception being El Gato Malo's placing in the Sham Stakes behind Colonel John this past weekend. And even he has a host of question marks having never run on a dirt track, as well as being poorly bred for the 10 panels on the first Saturday in May. And for the record, both Colonel John and El Gato Malo received Beyer numbers in the mid-80s for that race.
THIS WEEK'S PREPS
The Louisiana Derby highlights this Saturday's action, and it's shaping up as the most important race of the season. Pyro will try to duplicate his victory in the Risen Star when he squares off against eight others, including Majestic Warrior, Tale of Ekati and J Be K.
Everyone is well aware by now of Pyro's dominating performance in early February, but this field is 10 times better than the one he faced in the Risen Star. However, his two most acclaimed rivals, Majestic Warrior and Tale of Ekati, will be making their 2008 debuts, a tough spot for any horse coming off a long layoff. The former impressed many with his fast closing finish in last year's Hopeful Stakes, while the latter took home the Futurity at Belmont last September. Still, they both have not raced since October, and War Pass and Pyro easily smashed them in the two most important two-year-old races: the Champagne and Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
J Be K is an interesting horse and one to definitely keep an eye on. The lightly-raced colt is two-for-two with his last victory coming by five lengths in an allowance race over this course on February 15. He has yet to race in anything other than a sprint and will be giving a lot away in terms of experience, but there's not much speed in the race so don't be surprised if he steals it on the front end or at least holds second to Pyro.
The other prep race this Saturday comes from New York, where Giant Moon and Visionaire do battle with eight others. Giant Moon is undefeated with four consecutive victories, but this will be his first race in two months. Visionaire was last seen finishing third to Pyro in the Risen Star and could knock off the "Giant" if he improves off that effort. Don't forget Visionaire got the best of Elysium Fields, the Fountain of Youth runner-up, in his maiden win in November of 2007.
JEFF FRANK'S TOP 10 DERBY PROSPECTS
Pool 2 wagering begins this Thursday so get your wallets ready. Here is this week's top 10 list followed by Pool 1 closing odds:
1) Court Vision, 15-1; 2) War Pass, 6-1; 3) Pyro, 5-1; 4) Colonel John, 19-1; 5) Tomcito, 3-1 (field); 6) Denis of Cork, 46-1; 7) El Gato Malo, 16-1; 8) Atoned, 3-1 (field); 9) Fierce Wind, 3-1 (field); 10-T) Giant Moon, 51-1, and Big Truck, 3-1 (field).
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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting
So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.
Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?
If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)
Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).
In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.
Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.
| The Bubble Breakdown | |||
| CONFERENCE | LOCKS | SHOULD BE INS | AT-LARGES TAKEN (assuming no auto bid outlier) |
| ACC Betting Odds | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| Big East Betting Odds | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| Big Ten Betting Odds | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Big 12 Betting Odds | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Pac-10 Betting Odds | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| SEC Betting Odds | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| MVC Betting Odds | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| MWC Betting Odds | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| TOTAL | 28 | 5 | 25 |
As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.
(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)
If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech
The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.
Work left to do:
Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.
Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).
Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.
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Marlins could start season without No. 2 starter Johnson
JUPITER, Fla. -- The Foorida Marlins are preparing for the likelihood that right-hander
Josh Johnson won't be ready when the season starts April 2.
Grapefruit League action starts Wednesday, but Johnson, penciled in as the No. 2 starter, hasn't even thrown off a mound at full speed since September. He's experienced some soreness in his right forearm.
MySportsbook.com have the Marlins listed with baseball betting lines at +800 to win the NL East this season .
''You guys know the math. If he's not on the hill then he becomes an opening day roster issue,'' manager Fredi Gonzalez said Saturday. ''We're borderline now.''
Johnson, who finished 12-7 with a 3.10 ERA in 2007, was supposed to throw on flat ground Saturday. That was canceled when he woke up with pain.
He played catch on Wednesday with no pain but felt discomfort in a throwing session on Thursday. He's expected to try again Sunday.
''Like we always said from the very beginning, we're going to take it easy on him,'' Gonzalez said. ''He didn't feel right, so we shut him down. We're going to take it back to step one and see where we're at.''
Among the candidates to take Johnson's spot in the rotation are left-hander Chris George and right-handers Yusmeiro Petit and Jose Garcia.
Right-hander Sergio Mitre, who missed most of last season with arm and shoulder problems, also is behind.
With Johnson's status doubtful, Gonzalez said right-hander Ricky Nolasco will stay in the rotation and no longer will be considered a candidate for closer.
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