Promising goalies poised for breakout
Hockey Betting Lines
08/06/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The parity of the cap-era NHL claimed another victim this past week when the Chicago Blackhawks traded Stanley Cup winning goalie Antti Niemi in favor of an aging Marty Turco and a paltry $1.45 million in cap relief.
Whether this move pays dividends for the Hawks is unknown, but walking away from a 26-year old goaltender who put up impressive numbers in the regular season and didn't wilt in the playoffs could prove as a major source of dismay.
What's even more surprising is the number of young goalies who enjoyed tremendous success a season ago.
Aside from Niemi, fellow freshmen Tuukka Rask and Jimmy Howard had no trouble cutting their teeth as everyday starters despite having combined for only 10 games NHL experience prior to last season.
Expect more of the same this year, and look for other netminders to make their mark and perhaps steal away a job from a seasoned starter.
In Los Angeles, Jonathan Quick better look over his shoulder because Jonathan Bernier is quickly approaching everyday duties and could be poised for a breakout year.
Despite putting up respectable numbers and backstopping the Kings to their first playoff berth since 2002, Quick could find himself battling for minutes with Bernier, who was named the American Hockey League's Most Outstanding Goalie for the Manchester Monarchs last season.
In his brief three-game stint with the Kings in 2010, Bernier went 3-0 with a 1.30 goals-against average, .957 save percentage and a shutout.
Although Quick is a promising youngster himself, the future throne in L.A. looks to belong to Bernier.
Another goalie looking to emerge from the shadows of obscurity is San Jose's Thomas Greiss.
Having trained under the wing of KHL-bound backstop Evgeni Nabokov, Greiss will have every opportunity this season to show he is ready to steal the spotlight.
His competition between the pipes will be newly acquired Anterro Niittymaki, who will be likely pegged to receive the majority of starts.
But unlike the many serviceable years provided by Nabokov, the Sharks no longer have the luxury of relying on a clear-cut number, giving Greiss a perfect platform to prove he can get the job done.
While he didn't see much action last year, the Cologne, Germany native proved capable of weathering the storm when called upon, a fact reflected by his sparkling .922 save percentage.
Speaking of sparkling, Jacob Markstrom, the shiniest of goaltending prospects, has made the move from Sweden and should challenge for a position on the Florida Panthers roster this season.
With Thomas Vokoun the clear-cut starter, the 20-year old Swede will have to win the backup role from journeyman Scott Clemmensen.
This past year, the 31st overall pick in 2008 put up astounding numbers for Brynas IF of the Swedish Elite League while also representing his country at the 2010 World Championship. As a result, the 6'4" phenom has drawn favorable comparisons to fellow countryman Henrik Lundqvist.
It wouldn't be shocking to see Markstrom start the year in the AHL, but based on his raw skill and athleticism, Panthers GM Dale Tallon might be forced to give the kid a shot sooner rather than later.
Whether it's parity or productivity, the emergence of young goaltenders has proven to become a staple of success for many franchises across the NHL landscape.
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Horse Betting
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
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