CFL Western Division: Eskimos finally play some defense
Football Betting Lines
08/31/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Week nine of the CFL season belonged to Alberta, as both Calgary and Edmonton found the win column. Calgary's victory was expected, but the Eskimos' three-point win over the Saskatchewan Roughriders was, quite possibly, the shocker of the season. Whether Edmonton has found its form remains to be seen, but it suddenly makes the West division more interesting heading into the classic Labor Day weekend showdown.
EDMONTON ESKIMOS
All signs pointed to a Saskatchewan blowout, but credit the Edmonton defense for its dominating performance in a 17-14 win. Everything clicked for the Esks, as the Riders failed to score a single point over the final three quarters. After a shaky first, Edmonton settled down and pressured Saskatchewan quarterback Darian Durant on seemingly every possession. Durant was picked off three times, and fumbled once against Edmonton's d-line wall. Ricky Ray started the game despite nursing a rib injury he suffered against Calgary on August 15th, but Jared Zabransky stepped into action in the second quarter. Ray returned late in the game and is expected to start again in Week 10. Edmonton doesn't have much time to enjoy its victory as it travels to face the league's best team in Calgary next.
Offensive key to the next game (Calgary Stampeders): The Eskimos will need to score more than 17 points to beat Calgary. More consistency at quarterback this week is the only shot Edmonton has for a second straight upset.
Defensive key to the next game: As good as Saskatchewan can be offensively, Calgary is at an even higher level. However, Edmonton's game plan should be the same - force the quarterback to scramble, and the Esks may see the wild side of Henry Burris rather than the calm and cool of recent weeks.
Look ahead: Edmonton fans looking at the future schedule must think their team is being punished severely for something. A home-and-home series with the Stamps followed by a road game in Montreal is not a pleasant thought. Needless to say, this stretch will determine Edmonton's chances of making the playoffs.
SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS
The first quarter of their week nine game against Edmonton was a microcosm of what the rest of the season has been like for the Riders: an entertaining and powerful start getting overshadowed by a lapse in quality of play. The Riders opened the season 3-0, but have gone 2-3 over the last five. Even in those two victories, Saskatchewan has not looked as promising as it did in its first game. Football is a team sport, so placing all the blame on one person isn't fair. However, the Riders have to be concerned about their chances to make it back to the Grey Cup when their quarterback, Durant, throws three interceptions and zero touchdowns against the league's worst defense. The Riders are fading, and fans of the Green Nation are growing restless. Playing prairie rival Winnipeg Blue Bombers in the Labor Day Classic may just be the remedy.
Offensive key to the next game (Winnipeg Blue Bombers): Durant obviously needs to be better and remains the key to victory, but the Riders would do well to keep trying running back Wes Cates. He leads all CFL players with nine touchdowns, including eight on the ground.
Defensive key to the next game: Running back Fred Reid is Winnipeg's most dangerous offensive weapon. Logic dictates he should be the focus, but instead the Riders should feast on the weakness of Winnipeg's passing game. You need to go to the air in the CFL to win, and if Steven Jyles can't produce at QB, Reid alone is not enough for the Bombers.
Look ahead: Two straight games against Winnipeg is always a cause for celebration among Saskatchewan fans, but the real game to celebrate takes place in two weeks time. A rematch against the Stampeders in Week 12 may turn out to be the most important game of the season.
CALGARY STAMPEDERS
Even when Calgary doesn't look good, it still finds a way to win easily. A 48-35 win over the BC Lions in week nine sounds impressive, but there is room for improvement in Cowtown. Quarterback Henry Burris did throw two touchdowns and ran one in for a major, but he also tossed three interceptions. On defense, the Stampeders had a rare bad day at the office when they allowed 35 points against the league's worst offense. More importantly, 15 of BC's points came in the fourth quarter, resulting in a final score that was much closer then it should have been. On the plus side, the Stamps did put up 499 yards of offense against just 266 for BC, showing the league that they don't have to be perfect to be the best.
Offensive key to the next game (Edmonton Eskimos): This home game will come down to whether the Stampeders' receiving corps can carry the load. Sure, Burris needs to be a little more cautious in his decisions, but it is not crucial given the difference in talent level between the Edmonton secondary and Calgary's receivers. Ken Yon Rambo is heating up, and Nik Lewis will be looking to rebound after a lackluster 25-yard performance in week nine..
Defensive key to the next game: The best defense is a good offense in this one: keep possession as long as possible, limit Edmonton's chances to find its rhythm, especially when Ricky Ray has yet to fully recover from injury.
Look ahead: Calgary faces nothing but West opponents for four straight weeks. Winning three all but ensures first-place in the West.
BC LIONS
The Lions no longer share the worst record in the league. Putting up 35 points against Calgary is a positive, but to utterly break down on defense and allow 48 is a new low in a season of lows. BC's inexperience on the o-line has received the most flak for the offensive woes, and deservedly so. But a close second has been the non-existence of any kind of running game. The Lions have averaged just 100 yards rushing per contest and only Montreal has averaged less, but since they have Anthony Calvillo and a well-oiled passing game, this is not as detrimental as it is for the Lions. In week nine, BC rushed for just 44 yards. While running backs can blame the lack of blocking of the line for not opening the holes, the backs themselves also need to shoulder some of the blame.
Offensive key to the next game (Montreal Alouettes): The Lions have to be perfect in all aspects of their game to have a hope of even competing. The most important? Giving kicker Paul McCallum a chance to kick field goals early and often. The kicker is the most accurate in the league this season, and while it seems silly to rely on a kicker to win a game, the Lions have to play a gritty, blue-collared and tightly-contested game if they want to complete the upset.
Defensive key to the next game: The Lions do have one outstanding turn of events they can capitalize on: Anthony Calvillo's absence. He is out with injury, leaving third-stringer Chris Leak to come in and try and fill the shoes of one of the CFL's best-ever quarterbacks. This is the Lions' best chance to beat the Als this season, and to do it, they must rock Leak whenever possible. Prevent Leak from getting confidence and the Lions have a legitimate shot.
Look ahead: BC's best chance of making the playoffs is to cross over to the East. Considering its next three games are against eastern opponents, the time is now for BC to make a move.
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Super Bowl 2009 Betting
Super Bowl 2009 Betting propositionsUnderdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.
Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.
Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.
If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.
Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.
By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.
In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.
So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.
While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.
There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.
In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:
SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.
XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.
XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.
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