Baseball Betting

CFL Previews - August 27-28 - Week Nine

Football Betting Lines

08/25/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) -

CALGARY STAMPEDERS (6-1) at BRITISH COLUMBIA LIONS (1-6)

DATE & TIME: Friday, August 27, 10:30 p.m. (et).

GAME NOTES: A couple of teams heading in opposite directions in the CFL's Western Division clash at Empire Field in Vancouver for the second time in less than a month as the British Columbia Lions entertain the Calgary Stampeders on Friday night.

Last week all of the clubs in the division enjoyed a bye, giving Calgary more time to plot how to distance itself from the rest of the league while BC was left to wonder how it got caught in this mess in the first place.

Since defeating Edmonton in the season opener by a score of 25-10, the Lions have headed south and fast, losing six in a row to match the Eskimos for last place in the division standings. On August 12, BC barely put up a fight as Saskatchewan rolled to a 37-13 victory at home, continuing the longest losing streak in the career of head coach Wally Buono who has a total of 236 regular- season victories to his credit.

Aside from receiver Geroy Simon catching the 800th pass of his career, placing him ninth in CFL history, and Ryan Phillips recording two more interceptions to give him 11 all-time against the Roughriders, little went right for the Lions. Newly named quarterback Jarious Jackson converted 18-of-31 passes for 194 yards, but he was picked off twice and sacked five times. Running back Yonus Davis scored on a 51-yard run in the third quarter, while kicker Paul McCallum's 32-yard field goal in the first period represented the first points scored in the opening frame in any game this year for the Lions.

While British Columbia is staring up at the rest of the division, outside of Edmonton of course, Calgary is rolling along after blowing the doors off the Eskimos two weeks ago in an ugly 56-15 final at home. Henry Burris hit on 21- of-29 passes for 305 yards and three touchdowns and even backup Drew Tate got in on the action as he converted all four of his pass attempts and added a passing TD of his own in the onslaught. Nik Lewis, one of eight players with at least one reception, did the most damage with five catches for 117 yards and a pair of majors for the home team. While the Stamps were putting up 504 yards of total offense, they were limiting Edmonton to a mere 283 yards and a total of 13 first downs.

Over the last seven meetings against the Lions, Burris has tossed at least one touchdown pass and actually has a total of 12 TD strikes against just three interceptions during that span. The signal-caller also has five rushing touchdowns to his credit since 2008 versus BC. Adding to the offensive attack for the Stampeders has been running back Joffrey Reynolds who for the most part has had quite a bit of success against the Lions since the start of the 2008 campaign. He has gained at least 100 yards rushing in five of the seven meetings, averaging no less than 5.4 yards per carry in any of those contests, which means he and Burris have put together a solid one-two offensive punch that BC has yet to stop.

The Lions, who are averaging just 108.3 yards per game on the ground in 2010, have turned the ball over 18 times through seven outings and that hasn't helped matters either. Adding to the confusion is the ever-changing quarterback position which has seen Jackson, Travis Lulay and Casey Printers all taking their share of the snaps. Certainly that wasn't the intention coming into the season, but after Printers went out with an injury and Lulay proved to be ineffective, the original plans were thrown out the window. Printers, who has completed 56.8 percent of his passes for two touchdowns and as many interceptions, could be back on the field this week, but given how much this group has gone through nothing is guaranteed.

After seven weeks of the season, the passing attack for the Lions was dismal at best, completing a combined 58 percent of pass attempts for a mere three touchdowns and a total of 10 INTs. The combined efficiency rating was a paltry 66.4, compared to Calgary which was at 99.2 thanks to having a league-high 18 TD passes. Not only do the Stamps possess one of the top offensive units in the league, the defense has managed to hold opponents to just 310.1 ypg, by far the best mark in the CFL this year thus far.

Coming into the 2010 campaign, Calgary held a 91-71-5 advantage over the Lions in the all-time regular-season series dating back to 1954. The Stamps won the first meeting of the season a few weeks back with a 27-22 victory on the road as Burris threw for a pair of touchdowns in the seventh straight series victory for Calgary. The teams are scheduled to meet again at the end of September and late in October to complete the season series.

If it were just the Calgary offense taking on the Lions that would be one thing, but the aggressive nature of the Stamps defense is another killer attribute that BC simply is not prepared to fight off. Expect another win for the Stampeders this week, but by a much larger margin than they had in the first meeting of the season.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Calgary 44, British Columbia 18

SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS (5-2) AT EDMONTON ESKIMOS (1-6)

DATE & TIME: Saturday, August 28, 7:00 p.m. (et).

GAME NOTES: The Edmonton Eskimos soldier on this weekend as they entertain the Saskatchewan Roughriders in a Western Division showdown at Commonwealth Stadium on Saturday night.

Both teams enjoyed a week off recently, although the Roughriders probably had a better time of it than Edmonton seeing as how Saskatchewan is currently second in the division standings with a record of 5-2 and the Eskimos are scraping the bottom of the barrel with just one win in seven tries. Except for a 28-25 win over British Columbia, the other team in the division that is a mere 1-6 thus far, Edmonton has had little to be proud of to this point. The last time the team hit the field was on August 15 and they hit it hard, suffering a 56-15 setback at the hands of the Calgary Stampeders on the road. The loss was the second in a row and prompted a number of changes on the Edmonton coaching staff.

First, it was announced that assistant coach Danny Kepley had decided to retire on August 18, a move that surprised head coach Richie Hall. Shortly thereafter it was announced that offensive line coach Jeff Bleamer had been relieved of his duties. In hopes of changing the team's fortunes at this stage, coach Hall brought on Mark Nelson to handle the linebackers and Tim Prinsen to take care of the offensive line. Only time will tell whether these alterations to the coaching staff bear any fruit here in 2010.

But one thing is for sure, Edmonton needed a shakeup in order to show that it was unwilling to go through the rest of the campaign without making some sort of effort. Through seven weeks of the season, the Eskimos were second-to-last in the league in scoring with a mere 20.7 ppg and dead last in terms of points allowed, permitting an unhealthy 34.1 ppg. Playing into all of those numbers was the team's inability to not only maintain possession of the ball (24 giveaways) but also to force opponents into turnovers (10 forced) which means they are by far the worst team in the CFL with a minus-14 in the turnover department.

Against the Stamps the last time out, Edmonton was charged with nine penalties for a loss of 141 yards, fumbled the ball four times and was tabbed with a pair of interceptions as three different players took their turn at quarterback. Starter Ricky Ray went from being ineffective (2-of-5 for 19 yards and a sack) to taking a seat on the bench with an injury. Jared Zabransky hit on half of his 16 pass attempts for 107 yards and a score, but he was picked off once and suffered three sacks as well. Jason Maas converted 5-of-8 throws for 62 yards and a pick for the inept unit. If there was anything positive to take from the outing it was that kick returner Kelly Campbell was named the CFL's Special Teams Player of the Week after bringing back five punts for 162 yards, including one for a major on a 95-yard gallop. He also returned five kickoffs for an additional 141 yards.

As for the Roughriders, their offense was hitting all the right notes against British Columbia in their 37-13 victory two weeks ago. However, garnering some attention of his own was linebacker Jerrell Freeman who was named the CFL's Defensive Player of the Week after logging the first three sacks of his professional career. Not to be ignored was quarterback Darian Durant who threw for 223 yards and a touchdown and also scored two of the team's four rushing majors in the decision. Durant, who suffered a pair of INTs, gained a team- best 67 yards on just nine carries, while running back Wes Cates contributed 61 yards and two touchdowns on 13 attempts coming out of the backfield.

With seven weeks in the books Durant was second in the league with 2,263 passing yards, yet his 60.3 percent completion rate was less than impressive and his 11 touchdowns against nine interceptions doesn't exactly strike fear into opposing defenses. More positive was the overall production of Cates who was not only third in the CFL with 558 yards on 88 carries, but he was by far the top scoring running back with seven majors in as many games and thanks to one receiving TD he was first in the CFL in touchdowns overall. In 14 career games against Edmonton, Cates has scored a total of seven touchdowns while rushing for 707 yards and registering 380 yards receiving.

On a personal level, Durant has had his issues against the Edmonton defense since making his first appearance against the club last year. In just four games the signal-caller has issued four INTs and been sacked a total of 11 times, but at the same time he has averaged about 245 ypg through the air as well.

Edmonton has been a slow starter all season, scoring just 14 combined points in the opening quarter, and the team has been notorious for lying down in the fourth as well, putting up just 24 points in that period. In between the squad has generated an impressive 107 points in 2010, but until the unit is able to put together a solid effort from the opening kick to the final gun it will never seriously contend on a regular basis.

For the Roughriders, they too need some time to warm up when they hit the field, tallying a total of 34 points in the first period this year, but once they get started they are hard to hold down, improving upon their scoring in each successive quarter before finishing off with an average of more than 11 ppg in the fourth alone.

Believe it or not, the Eskimos actually gave Saskatchewan a fight in their first meeting of the season back on July 17 when the Roughriders slipped by with a 24-20 victory. Edmonton led by a touchdown heading into the fourth quarter, at which point the Roughriders picked up a TD pass from Darian Durant, a single and a 23-yard field goal late in the meeting to secure the victory at home.

Ray threw for 319 yards, but was sacked three times and failed to get his squad into the end zone, while Durant accounted for 238 yards through the air and another 49 on the ground as Saskatchewan logged 234 rushing yards, against just 94 for the visiting Eskimos.

In terms of the all-time, regular-season series between the two clubs, the victory for the Roughriders last month means Edmonton now leads by a count of 106-80-2 dating back to 1949 campaign. If there is any bright spot to this matchup for the Eskimos it is that Saskatchewan has lost two of its three road games so far this season.

The Esks are going to need more than just some changes on the sidelines to improve this year, and with the issues at quarterback right now they are ripe for the picking.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Saskatchewan 35, Edmonton 23.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Season Predictions: 19-11; Last Week: 1-1.


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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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